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by John Newman |
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Judging by the
uglier-than-usual rhetoric being spewed by the Bush Administration, it
seems Americans have finally acknowledged what was already clear – America will invade Iraq, and probably soon. Complacent folk that they
are, average American citizens are assuming another quick blitzkrieg
victory is in order. Not only is this view hopelessly shortsighted, it
may yet lead to the ultimate downfall of American imperialism.
Let’s examine the original Gulf War, an ugly little conflict which we’ve all been tricked into thinking was bloodless. A massive American force, with obedient allies in tow, swarmed over Iraq and annihilated its army and economy, losing only two hundred dead and five hundred wounded. A perfect victory, at least as far as the bloodthirsty Statists see it. If America and Iraq once again come to blows, this course of events will not repeat itself. Thanks to Bill Clinton, the American army has been reduced to only ten operative divisions, a mere shadow of its former skull-crushing self. Also, due to years of shameless military adventurism, this force is stretched extremely thin. The core elements of three divisions - the 10th Mountain, as well as the 82nd and 101st Airborne - are still busy subjugating the people of Afghanistan, and their commitment there can only widen as more troops are needed to pacify increasing resistance. Additionally, the 1st Infantry is busy occupying South Korea, and will also be unable to participate in the coming invasion. This leaves a grand total of six front-line divisions available to combat the supposed threat of Saddam Hussein. Compare this to the Iraqi Army, which has spent the last ten years training and rearming for another fight with the U.S. Iraq has five or six elite Republican Guard divisions, each one at least as well trained, and certainly better motivated, than an equivalent American unit. The U.S. Air Force will certainly dominate the air, but the Iraqis are still very capable of giving the invaders a hell of a fight. Things get infinitely stickier when you add weapons of mass destruction into the equation. Although fears of nuclear weapons are probably greatly overstated, biological agents are still very likely to be used. Evidence indicates that Saddam has at least some inhalation Anthrax, which could cause thousands of casualties if dispersed in an explosion above an American troop column. What am I getting at here? Sit down for this one: The American army cannot defeat Saddam without nearly crippling itself. The U.S. is intent on committing virtually every active serviceman it has to this invasion. Ever hear that old saying about putting all of your eggs in one basket? I would conservatively estimate U.S. casualties at 30%. Conservatively. A defeat of such magnitude won’t be easy to overcome, either. This could very well be the death of the American Empire, with the politicians forced to either consolidate their holdings or spread American forces dangerously thin. Though perhaps such an outcome would be applauded by most people in the Third World, it nonetheless breaks the heart to see this withdrawal, for which so many of us have hoped, to come against the backdrop of so much death. In the end, every empire, even Uncle Sam’s, must return again to the dust. March 20, 2002 |
| John Newman is a Junior at Mayo High School in Rochester, Wisconsin. He enjoys writing, reading, and sending angry hate mail to Ted Kennedy, who's a fat communist. |
